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Archive for the ‘Bond Insurance’ Category

Harrisburg Burns

Wednesday, October 26th, 2011

We have written about Harrisburg PA.s struggle extensively during the past two years. A small city unable to pay off a jumbo-sized debt hasn’t shaken the muni market. Despite eye-catching headlines recently over Harrisburg bankruptcy filing, the news barely fazed other muni investors and probably rightly so.

A Messy Situation

Harrisburg’s financial woes stem from an incinerator originally built in 1972. Plagued with operating problems from the start, the city nevertheless decided to expand and retrofit the plant in 2003, taking on $125 million in debt. The initial contractor on the job went belly up, which led to more borrowing and debt that mushroomed to $310 million – a daunting sum for a city of 49,000 residents and a total municipal budget of less than $60 million. Ultimately, the city filed for bankruptcy, which the state is currently challenging in court.

Bonds Are Insured

Although Harrisburg’s move was unusual, the market hardly took notice. Harrisburg is not a significant issuer of bonds, and its financial plight has been well documented. A good portion of Harrisburg’s overall debt is insured, and many of the bonds associated with the incinerator are secured by Assured Guaranty, which made some payments the city previously missed. However, Assured credit rating has been lowered several times from AAA to where it is today.

While there are other cities and municipalities face strained finances, few are confronted with challenges similar to Harrisburg’s. Defaults continue to be extremely rare. Last year, municipal defaults totaled $2.65 billion, an 8.6% decline from 2009. So far this year, defaults total $1.1 billion, a small fraction of the $2.93 trillion in outstanding municipal bonds.

In the meantime, a judge placed Harrisburg’s bankruptcy on hold for a month, enabling bond insurers to file briefs in the case while state lawmakers are pushing to take over the city’s finances. Soon after Harrisburg filed for bankruptcy, the state sued, concurring with the mayor’s opposition to the filing. Harrisburg’s City Council voted three times over the summer to reject a financial recovery plan under the state’s program for distressed communities. All the decisions were carried by a 4-3 margin. The measure on October 12th to file bankruptcy was approved by the same 4-3 margin.

Why Municipal Bond Insurance Still Matters

Friday, April 1st, 2011

Municipal Bond Insurance: The Basics

If you are considering buying municipal bonds, you mayl need to decide whether to buy bonds with insurance policies designed to protect your investment.

What is municipal bond insurance?
It is simply a guaranty that the holder of a municipal bond will receive scheduled interest and principal payments when due, even if the municipal issuer fails to make these payments. It is literally an insurance policy against an issuer’s payment default.

Does it matter which company provides the bond insurance?
Well yes and no. Almost all municipal bond insurance companies are on the brink of collapse except Assured Guaranty. But no matter which insured bonds you own, you may not not get the long term benefit of insurance payments if there were to be say 20 large defaults or bankruptcies. That said, there are other benefits to having a strongly rated insurance company backing bonds such as loan collateral requirements that give the insurance company strong leverage powers during a default proceeding. This is the case with Assured Guaranty (AGC) and the now defaulted Harrisburg PA. incinerator project bonds. AGC has the hypothetical right to require the municipalities that backed the bond (Harrisburg, Dauphin County, etc) to sell other assets such as parking garages or to even force a tax increase.

Do I still need municipal bond insurance?
While municipal bond defaults have been rare, they occur more frequently in periods of economic stress. In 2009 there were about 250 defaults accounting for several billion in assets. That doesnt mean these bonds are dead, just that they need to work out a new payment plan. Most probably will. But few individual investors hold enough different municipal bonds to make this risk inconsequential, especially because they typically concentrate on bonds in their home state to gain the maximum benefit from the tax-exempt status of many municipal bonds. The decision to buy insured bonds will depend on your circumstances and risk tolerance. Here are some questions to ask yourself and related reasons that you might prefer bonds with insurance:

“How well do I know the municipality’s fiscal condition and the structure of the bond?” Insured bonds have been pre-selected for soundness by the guarantor. Guarantors back up their opinions with an obligation to pay interest and principal from their own capital if the issuer fails to do so. Additionally, by choosing insured municipal bonds, you gain the benefit of a professional surveillance staff whose only job is to keep tabs on the issuers of the insured bonds. In many cases, these professionals spot trouble ahead of time and can call upon, or even require, the municipality to take remedial steps before a default looms.

Who provides municipal bond insurance?
Only financial guaranty insurance companies may write bond insurance. You may hear these companies called “bond insurers,” “financial guarantors,” “monoline insurance companies” or just “monolines.” All these terms refer to the same group of companies, which operate solely as guarantors of financial obligations and are subject to specialized regulation.

“Would I be able to tolerate a drop in market value, or even the potential inability to sell my bonds, if a municipal issuer’s financial condition deteriorated?” Although bond insurance does not guarantee a particular market value, distressed issuers’ bonds insured by highly rated guarantors have historically held their trading value better than comparable uninsured issues.

“If a municipality missed one or more interest or principal payments, could I afford to be without the cash flow for a number of years until I could obtain a recovery?” If a municipality cannot make a scheduled payment on an insured bond when it is due, the bond insurer is obligated to make prompt payment in full.

How are bond insurers regulated?
As insurance companies, financial guarantors must be licensed to write insurance by the state insurance department in each state where they insure bonds and must meet their obligations to policyholders before other creditors. Additionally, financial guaranty insurers must restrict their business to financial guaranty and related types of insurance (hence the name “monolines”). Under financial guaranty statutes, financial guarantors must comply with capital, liquidity and reserving requirements as well as limits on their financial guaranty exposures.

How do I get bond insurance?
You generally do not buy the insurance directly. Instead, you buy bonds that were issued with insurance. (Issuers arrange to have their bonds insured in order to attract more investors and improve the efficiency of their bond offerings.)

A new twist is that dealers may purchase insurance for bonds already trading in the secondary market, typically for larger positions.

Casino Muni Bond Defaults Because “The People Got Fed Up”

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

A federal court actually allowed an American Indian tribe to get out of a $50 million bond it owed to a private investor, raising concerns among other tribal-casino lenders. The 3,500-member Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians, in northern Wisconsin, said $782,000 in monthly bond payments were bleeding it dry so last fall, it stopped making them, arguing that the deal was invalid.

Preposterous you say? A U.S. District Court in Wisconsin last month upheld an earlier ruling that the bond deal, cut in 2008, violated federal Indian casino law.

Defaulting because “the people got fed up” sounds like a line from a comedy routine. For any US based person or entity that defaults on a loan, the collateral posted should be forfeited, certainly at least until the loan is paid back. Thats a founding principle of business. However, the tribe president actually said “…before the bond, we were doing OK. We were able to keep our head above water but the people finally got fed up.”

As far as any potential chilling effect, its not likely. Casino’s are cash machines so investors will just find new and improved loan documents next time. Other Indian casino bondholders beware!

Jim Walker
www.BondView.com

AMBAC Lives Another Day

Saturday, November 21st, 2009

It seems for now that AMBAC may win its fight to survive, unless a few muni defaults of AMBAC insured bonds bankrupts them. The insurer can at least rely on the long term premiums continued to be paid by all the municipalities it did insure thereby assuring them an annual maintenance stream. All that said, the insurance industry thrives on conservative stability. So why the AMBAC roller-coaster? Well muni rates are low, but their 3rd quarter results showed a capital gain and a higher stock price moved ( over 30% to $1.30). Then last week AMBAC announced the possibility of a bankruptcy filing. And a few days later it reported $856M of surplus easing concerns the bond insurer would fall short of statutory minimums. How all this can happen in two weeks seems anything but predictable. Some Wall Street analysts had speculated the insurer would come up short of $2 million in minimum capital needed under rules set up by its regulator. Then Ambac said it will receive a gain and plus the US government is bailing them out (and alot of other companies) with a $440 million tax refund because of recent legislation that will allow it to carry back 2008 and 2009 losses as far back as 2004.

Here is a list of recently traded insured bonds from BondView.com

AMBAC Bites The Dust…?

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

About 10 years ago my muni bond broker said the “day insurers of muni bonds cant pay off a defaulted bond you will have bigger problems on your hands” , implying such an event would never happen. Well he was right about big problems.  Bond insurers sent shudders through the $2.8 trillion municipal bond market when the threat to their internal triple-A credit ratings surfaced two years ago. But now that one of the biggest, Ambac, has said it may actually tip into bankruptcy, the market  barely cares.  With muni rates at all time lows, and bond pricing all over the place, bond insurance is a laughable notion. Up until  a few years ago any old municipality could buy a AAA bond rating bond insruance  helped  foster an environment where the AAA muni was  a commodity that was  easily traded. Many investors didnt care about the all important underlying rating of a muni and instead bought by issuing insured bonds. The underlying rating was meaningless since buyers thought they just wanted a commodity: The AAA Bond. We know now that  was a mistake, hopefully never to be repeated.

In the heyday of bond insurance, seven firms carried the top credit rating of triple-A, and half of new municipal bonds carried insurance. Now, barely 10% of new muni bonds have insurance. None have retained triple-A ratings and all but one, Assured,  have junk ratings! Their downfall came after the top insurers branched out to guarantee complex mortgage securities. When the housing market tanked, insurers saw their losses grow, their ratings fall and their clients flee.

What does this mean for today?  The muni bond market has largely taken its losses and has withstood the turmoil seen with the weakest of the insurers. Besides Ambac,  MBIA  posted its fifth straight quarterly loss earlier this year and its public finance insurance spinoff  is being challenged by banks, which say such a split is fraudulent.  Here is a list of  today’s insured bonds  trading info from BondView