Obama’s Jobs Bill Will Punish Muni bonds. Municipal bonds have always been synonymous with tax-free income. That would end if President Obama gets his way. The Obama Administration wants to raise taxes on “high earners” defined as couples earning more than $250k to pay for the jobs bill. Yet in many US cities the $250k earnings level represents the upper middle class not the wealthy. And retail middle class bond investors own 70% of all municipal bonds. Changing the tax free investment status rules retroactively on muni bonds will completely disrupt the investment marketplace.
That said, while reviewing the tax exempt status afforded to muni bonds is a legitimate question for a democracy and all its people to consider, it should be addressed forthrightly, not by the back-door mechanisms being proposed by the administrative branch. If Washington wants to change the tax status on newly issued bonds by states and municipalities, thats reasonable as the success with the Build America Bond has already proved, a direct subsidy to issuers is more efficient than tax exemption.
Here is more below on this issue from Barron’s ever prescient columnist Randall Forsyth.
Under the jobs bill the President sent to Congress Monday, high-income individuals and families would no longer receive interest from state and municipal bonds free completely from federal income taxes, beginning in 2013. The legislation would also reduce the value of tax deductions for taxpayers in the highest bracket.
Specifically, individuals earning over $200,000 and families earning over $250,000 would effectively have the value of tax breaks against the top 35% bracket lowered to the 28% bracket.
The proposed change would help pay the $447 billion tab for the American Jobs Act of 2011. There have been previous attempts to enact a back-door tax hike on the upper brackets. Reformers have asserted that it is unfair that high-income taxpayers receive a greater benefit from deductions; a $1,000 deduction saves somebody in a 35% bracket $350, $70 more than the same deduction saves a taxpayer in the 28% bracket.
Never before have high-income investors in municipal bonds been so targeted, however. With the exception of so-called private-purpose bonds subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax, interest on munis generally was exempt from federal income taxes.
As with deductions, the tax-free feature on munis is more valuable to investors in the top income-tax brackets. For that reason, Internal Revenue Service data show that 58% of all tax-exempt income was earned by individuals earning over $200,000, according to The Bond Buyer, the muni-market trade paper.
For instance, a tax-free bond that yields 3.50% (about the going rate on a 30-year, triple-A muni) is equivalent to a taxable bond that yields 5.38% for an investor in the 35% tax bracket. But for an investor in the 28% bracket, that 3.50% muni is equivalent to a taxable yield of 4.86%.
All else being equal, the yield on muni bonds would have to rise to compensate for the lesser tax benefit, if the Obama jobs bill is enacted as proposed. For instance, a rise of 50 basis points (one-half percentage point) would result in a price decline of about 9% for a 30-year bond — equal to $90,000 for a $1 million holding.
As a result, upper-income investors would suffer the dual blow of lower after-tax income and capital losses from their muni-bond portfolios.
That could severe repercussions for the muni market, which only in recent months has recovered from the so-far errant prediction of hundreds of defaults totaling billions of dollars from analyst Meredith Whitney.
“In my opinion, this will have a negative effect on the muni market and could start another wave of heavy withdrawals from muni-bond funds, even though many investors in these funds will be minimally affected,” says Ken Woods, who head Asset Preservation Advisors, an Atlanta manager of bond portfolios specializing in high-net-worth individuals. “The muni investor’s thought process will be, ‘the government’s next step could be the complete elimination of the [tax] exemption.’”
One of the ironies of this proposal in the so-called jobs bill is that the measure contains infrastructure spending, some $38 billion worth. It would also create an infrastructure bank to fund such projects.
But reducing demand for bonds issued by state and regional authorities that build highways, bridges, airports, water and sewer systems and transportation projections would hamper the very sort of projects the legislation seeks to encourage.
Obviously, the proposal to reduce the appeal of muni bonds to high-income investors is aimed at sentiments such as voiced recently by Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett, who lamented his tax rate was lower than his secretary’s.
If the Obama Administration wants to raise taxes on high earners to reduce income and wealth inequality, that is a legitimate question in a democracy. But it should be addressed forthrightly, not by back-door mechanisms.
And if Washington wants to change the tax status on newly issued bonds by states and municipalities, that also is legitimate. A direct subsidy to issuers is more efficient than tax exemption.
But to change the rules after the fact on an investment that has always been tax-free, as in the case of munis, isn’t just counterproductive; it’s not fair.




Muni Bond Defaults Need A louder Alarm
Tuesday, December 1st, 2009Less than a month before the $43.4 million municipal bond default of Boston based Crosstown Center , some unsuspecting retail buyer purchased $100,000 of the now defaulted bonds. Whats troubling is that this purchase was made just 18 days after a rather cryptic material event notice filed thru the EMMA.org continuing disclosure system.
While we are really thrilled to see the positive strides made by the Municipal Securities Rule Making Board and its rather lovely www.emma.org muni bond continuing disclosure system, the impact of material event notices need to be made clearer to the consumer marketplace. Sure “Material Events” can cover a wide range of topics from benign notices to the Crosstown Center disaster. Even with low muni rates, how and when is a consumer suppose to know to watch their muni bonds for falling trees? How about a rating system for these material events on a 1-10 scale from insignificant to “timber….”. After all what good is a warning bell if no one hears it?
Enough with the complaints. How about a solution? History clearly shows that markets have the intelligence to predict bad news thru market price based rating systems. Some of the larger credit rating agencies even offer these products pricing products. But the consumer market doesn’t seem educated to the benefit of these smart market priced based credit ratings. However, Bondview has built in Market Ratings along with bond pricing of muni bonds and muni rates.
Okay then how about the original rating? The defaulted bonds carried a Moody’s rating of Baa3 when issued in 2002. How is it possible to loose $43 million so fast without the rating agencies even noticing?
We can only again recommend our esteemed NY Times colleague Gretchen Morgenson’s 10/10/09 article “When Bond Ratings Get Stale”. Within this well penned piece was detailed the most colorful of quotes during congressional hearings with Scott McCleskey, head of compliance at Moody’s from April 2006 to September 2008. He outlined Moodys failure to effectively monitor the ratings on thousands of muni bonds held by individual and institutional investors. McCleskey said that “in some cases there were bonds which had been outstanding for 10 or 20 years but which had never been looked at since the original rating. In the case of the Crosstown default, its only been 7 years.
In closing, its troubling that somehow Boston is not a “party to the default”and just goes to show that muni bonds really can be a mine field. Even the smart money didn’t see that train wreck coming. Several bond funds including muni bond powerhouse Nuveen, thru its Massachusetts Premium Income Municipal Fund, held Crosstown Center bonds valued at $963,000, according to a recent securities filing. Here are BondView’s yield curves of yesterdays Industrial Development Bonds trades from Massachusetts. They dont look bad now, but a good idea to steer clear of this category if they don’t have the full faith and credit of the municipality behind them.
Tags: bond pricing, Bond Ratings, Crosstown Center, Gretchen Morgenson, Moodys, muni bonds, muni rates, municipal bond defaults, NewYork Times, Nuveen, Scott McCleskey
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