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Archive for the ‘bond pricing’ Category

Obama’s Jobs Bill Will Punish Muni bonds.

Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

Obama’s Jobs Bill Will Punish Muni bonds. Municipal bonds have always been synonymous with tax-free income. That would end if President Obama gets his way. The Obama Administration wants to raise taxes on “high earners” defined as couples earning more than $250k to pay for the jobs bill. Yet in many US cities the $250k earnings level represents the upper middle class not the wealthy. And retail middle class bond investors own 70% of all municipal bonds. Changing the tax free investment status rules retroactively on muni bonds will completely disrupt the investment marketplace.

That said, while reviewing the tax exempt status afforded to muni bonds is a legitimate question for a democracy and all its people to consider, it should be addressed forthrightly, not by the back-door mechanisms being proposed by the administrative branch. If Washington wants to change the tax status on newly issued bonds by states and municipalities, thats reasonable as the success with the Build America Bond has already proved, a direct subsidy to issuers is more efficient than tax exemption.

Here is more below on this issue from Barron’s ever prescient columnist Randall Forsyth.

Under the jobs bill the President sent to Congress Monday, high-income individuals and families would no longer receive interest from state and municipal bonds free completely from federal income taxes, beginning in 2013. The legislation would also reduce the value of tax deductions for taxpayers in the highest bracket.

Specifically, individuals earning over $200,000 and families earning over $250,000 would effectively have the value of tax breaks against the top 35% bracket lowered to the 28% bracket.

The proposed change would help pay the $447 billion tab for the American Jobs Act of 2011. There have been previous attempts to enact a back-door tax hike on the upper brackets. Reformers have asserted that it is unfair that high-income taxpayers receive a greater benefit from deductions; a $1,000 deduction saves somebody in a 35% bracket $350, $70 more than the same deduction saves a taxpayer in the 28% bracket.

Never before have high-income investors in municipal bonds been so targeted, however. With the exception of so-called private-purpose bonds subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax, interest on munis generally was exempt from federal income taxes.

As with deductions, the tax-free feature on munis is more valuable to investors in the top income-tax brackets. For that reason, Internal Revenue Service data show that 58% of all tax-exempt income was earned by individuals earning over $200,000, according to The Bond Buyer, the muni-market trade paper.

For instance, a tax-free bond that yields 3.50% (about the going rate on a 30-year, triple-A muni) is equivalent to a taxable bond that yields 5.38% for an investor in the 35% tax bracket. But for an investor in the 28% bracket, that 3.50% muni is equivalent to a taxable yield of 4.86%.

All else being equal, the yield on muni bonds would have to rise to compensate for the lesser tax benefit, if the Obama jobs bill is enacted as proposed. For instance, a rise of 50 basis points (one-half percentage point) would result in a price decline of about 9% for a 30-year bond — equal to $90,000 for a $1 million holding.

As a result, upper-income investors would suffer the dual blow of lower after-tax income and capital losses from their muni-bond portfolios.

That could severe repercussions for the muni market, which only in recent months has recovered from the so-far errant prediction of hundreds of defaults totaling billions of dollars from analyst Meredith Whitney.

“In my opinion, this will have a negative effect on the muni market and could start another wave of heavy withdrawals from muni-bond funds, even though many investors in these funds will be minimally affected,” says Ken Woods, who head Asset Preservation Advisors, an Atlanta manager of bond portfolios specializing in high-net-worth individuals. “The muni investor’s thought process will be, ‘the government’s next step could be the complete elimination of the [tax] exemption.’”

One of the ironies of this proposal in the so-called jobs bill is that the measure contains infrastructure spending, some $38 billion worth. It would also create an infrastructure bank to fund such projects.

But reducing demand for bonds issued by state and regional authorities that build highways, bridges, airports, water and sewer systems and transportation projections would hamper the very sort of projects the legislation seeks to encourage.

Obviously, the proposal to reduce the appeal of muni bonds to high-income investors is aimed at sentiments such as voiced recently by Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett, who lamented his tax rate was lower than his secretary’s.

If the Obama Administration wants to raise taxes on high earners to reduce income and wealth inequality, that is a legitimate question in a democracy. But it should be addressed forthrightly, not by back-door mechanisms.

And if Washington wants to change the tax status on newly issued bonds by states and municipalities, that also is legitimate. A direct subsidy to issuers is more efficient than tax exemption.

But to change the rules after the fact on an investment that has always been tax-free, as in the case of munis, isn’t just counterproductive; it’s not fair.

With U.S. AAA Downgrade, Could Munis Default As Meredith Predicted?

Sunday, August 7th, 2011

The tax-free municipal bond market looks vastly different as we head toward the end of the second quarter of 2011 than it did when we were in the middle of the Meredith Whitney-led meltdown in January of this year.

In January the muni market was battered by the continued onslaught of municipal bond fund redemptions. Most of this damage occurred after Ms. Whitney’s appearance on 60 Minutes in December, when she forecast “hundreds of billions” of municipal defaults in 2011. This started the unmitigated selling, which peaked at over $4 billion per week in January. Because bond fund selling was mostly long-maturity bonds (and the funds own higher-yielding, longer-term bonds to pay their dividends), municipal bond yields soared, with long-term yields reaching 5.15% in the AAA range and between 5.5 and 6% on many high-grade revenue bonds. The bid side was often nonexistent, and liquidity was very spotty.

As Cumberland readers know, the signs were very evident that this was liquidity-driven, not credit-driven. Among these signs was the opposite movement of FALLING yields in the Build America Bonds taxable market, on the very same credits whose yields were being driven higher in the tax-free market. This was because pension funds, foreigners, and other taxable buyers were embracing the municipal credit that the retail investor was rejecting. The other sign was the fact that shorter-term yields had moved very little in the tax-free municipal market – if a true credit event had taken place, yields across the whole maturity spectrum would have moved up sharply.

As we hit the halfway point of the year, we see that 30-year AAA tax-free yields have fallen from 5.11% to 4.37% (source: Bloomberg), a drop of 75 basis points; and 10-year AAA yields have fallen from 3.47% to 2.63%, a drop of 84 basis points. Now, of course, there have been movements in Treasury yields, as well as market concern of a possible slowing economy, that have sent those yields down.

It is important to remember that this is AAA scale. Many high-grade bonds in the A and AA categories traded MUCH cheaper in January. But it is useful to look at the relative value of Treasuries and Munis from January to now. The biggest improvement in ratios was in the 10-year range. But because of the longer duration of 30-year bonds, the biggest improvement in price was in the longer end of the market.

The reasons behind this lie in the fact that most of the damage was in the long-maturity end of the market, since this was where most of the bond fund selling was concentrated. This is the area which could cure the most. Also, new-issue municipals this year are substantially reduced. Part of this was the “move up” of municipal supply at year-end from what would have been early-2011 issuance. This, of course, helped start the downdraft in the muni market in November, as issuers wanted to beat the expiration of the Build America Bonds program. Also, many state and local governments that had flexibility did not issue bonds at the nominally high yields that persisted early this year. We expect the first half of this year to close with approximately $110 billion in issuance. We expect the current lower rates will induce MORE supply in the second half of this year, but 2011 will most likely end up close to $250 billion – a marked decline from recent years.

The overall improvement in municipal finances has also contributed to improvement in the market. State and local governments (in total) are heading toward the sixth quarter in a row of RISING tax receipts. Also, problems in the pension area, which have gotten widespread press coverage, have started to be addressed. We expect this trend to continue.

The selling has abated in the municipal fund arena. Though most weeks have seen outflows, they are much smaller, and there were actually inflows a couple of weeks. Part of this is just the normal abatement of pressures, but it is also the recognition, even among retail investors, that things had really reached a point where the market was severely oversold.

The stock market, after turning in a very good performance through April of this year, has turned jittery with the Dow Jones shedding almost 900 points since the start of May. This has caused somewhat of a re-assessment of the needs of fixed income in overall investment portfolios. Presumably some of the fund selling went into equities and, depending on the timing, these assets could have been whipsawed.

We are now in the middle of a large reinvestment period where approximately $100 billion is rolling off through a mixture of coupon payments, maturing bonds, and called bonds. With fund selling reduced and some wariness in the stock market, we expect a lot of this money to now be reinvested in the bond market.

We realize that, while the municipal market is still cheap on a relative basis in the very short end and in the long end, the “giveaway market” of January and February has certainly turned around. This is causing us to be more cautious from a maturity and duration standpoint as we manage portfolios.

Reprinted with permission from our friends at Cumberland Advisors

New Tool For Municipal Bonds Could Shock Investors

Thursday, May 19th, 2011

Investors in Municipal Bonds have a powerful new tool in their portfolio analysis arsenal. BondView, LLC, a leading provider of Municipal bond portfolio analysis and market data, has launched the BondView Stress Test. The stress test lets investors see at a glance how muni bond values are impacted by rising interest rates and other market conditions. The introduction of this free calculator is timely, given the increasing popularity of municipal bonds, and the expected interest rate increases following historic lows during the recession.

The BondView Stress Test is the latest in a suite of free research and analysis services provided at Bondview.com. “With baby-boomers retiring and tax rates going up, bonds are an increasingly attractive option. But information about muni bond investments has been murky” said Robert Kane, CEO. By offering the Stress Test tool, Bondview hopes to educate users about the correlation between interest rates and municipal bonds.

BondView’s research shows that at today’s prevailing market rates, a 550-basis-point interest rate shock could cause a 30-year, highly rated muni bond to lose about 40 percent in value. Investors need to know that even a 100 basis-point increase can have a significant effect.

Approximately 70 percent of muni bonds are owned by retail investors directly and thru funds within investor’s multiple brokerage accounts. But financial advisors want to monitor their clients’ complete muni bond holdings across several brokerage accounts. Bondview offers centralized monitoring and a complete analysis toolkit that now includes stress testing. This toolkit is for anyone with municipal bonds in their portfolio — not just institutional investors. Kane said “Investors need to know that rising interest rates will significantly erode muni bond values.”

Steve McLaughlin, managing director of the research and advisory firm Municipal Market Advisors, agrees. “You have investors out there who are reaching for yield, who don’t fully understand the risk with intermediate- to long-term bonds. And it doesn’t take a huge increase in rates for some potential losses to occur.”

Kane commented “The mantra of buy-and-hold investors has been to not worry about bond value changes and instead focus on holding till maturity. But rising rates and inflation will make these same investors feel poorer on paper, as the reverse wealth effect kicks in.”

BondView’s free online Stress Test calculator is easy to use and provides instant, insightful results. Stress testing enables investors to evaluate the effect of rising (or falling) interest rates on the prices of the approximately 50,000 active state and local bond issuers, as represented by 1.3 million bond cusips across the entire $2.9 trillion municipal bond market.

To use the Stress Test calculator, simply load up a bond and move the slider right or left to reflect increasing or decreasing interest rates. The change in estimated bond price is calculated instantly. Users can vary the interest rate up or down in 50-basis-point increments, through a total range of +/- 550 basis points. It can be used to calculate the resulting price change in a single municipal bond, or an entire bond portfolio, given the current price, coupon rate and maturity.

BondView’s stress test calculator employs two well-established financial principles to calculate bond price changes relative to interest rates: modified duration and convexity. The time it takes an investor to be repaid from the bond’s cash flows is known as duration. Modified duration uses duration to calculate a bond’s price change based on the change in yield, maturity and current price. Convexity is a measure of the curvature (non-linear) relationship of a bond’s price change to yield changes. The price decrease is not directly proportional to the change in yield, as is the case using modified duration. To account for this, the BondView Stress Test adds a convexity correction to the modified duration.

About BondView.com

Bondivew provides free municipal bond portfolio analysis and market data for investors and professionals. Our mission is to promote independent and informed decision making by municipal bond investors and their advisors. BondView.com provides high level monitoring and detailed quantitative analysis of one bond or an entire bond portfolio, no matter where it is housed. BondView is completely independent and dedicated to providing timely, accurate, real-world market data for individual municipal bonds and funds. Its suite of tools and services continues to evolve. The Bondview Stress Test is available now at http://www.bondview.com/stresstest/bond/.

Muni Bond Defaults Need A louder Alarm

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

Less than a month before the $43.4 million municipal bond default of Boston based Crosstown Center , some unsuspecting retail buyer purchased $100,000 of the now defaulted bonds. Whats troubling is that this purchase was made just 18 days after a rather cryptic material event notice filed thru the EMMA.org continuing disclosure system.

While we are really thrilled to see the positive strides made by the Municipal Securities Rule Making Board and its rather lovely www.emma.org muni bond continuing disclosure system, the impact of material event notices need to be made clearer to the consumer marketplace. Sure “Material Events” can cover a wide range of topics from benign notices to the Crosstown Center disaster. Even with low muni rates, how and when is a consumer suppose to know to watch their muni bonds for falling trees? How about a rating system for these material events on a 1-10 scale from insignificant to “timber….”. After all what good is a warning bell if no one hears it?

Enough with the complaints. How about a solution? History clearly shows that markets have the intelligence to predict bad news thru market price based rating systems. Some of the larger credit rating agencies even offer these products pricing products. But the consumer market doesn’t seem educated to the benefit of these smart market priced based credit ratings. However, Bondview has built in Market Ratings along with bond pricing of muni bonds and muni rates.

Okay then how about the original rating? The defaulted bonds carried a Moody’s rating of Baa3 when issued in 2002. How is it possible to loose $43 million so fast without the rating agencies even noticing?

We can only again recommend our esteemed NY Times colleague Gretchen Morgenson’s 10/10/09 article “When Bond Ratings Get Stale”. Within this well penned piece was detailed the most colorful of quotes during congressional hearings with Scott McCleskey, head of compliance at Moody’s from April 2006 to September 2008. He outlined Moodys failure to effectively monitor the ratings on thousands of muni bonds held by individual and institutional investors. McCleskey said that “in some cases there were bonds which had been outstanding for 10 or 20 years but which had never been looked at since the original rating. In the case of the Crosstown default, its only been 7 years.

In closing, its troubling that somehow Boston is not a “party to the default”and just goes to show that muni bonds really can be a mine field. Even the smart money didn’t see that train wreck coming. Several bond funds including muni bond powerhouse Nuveen, thru its Massachusetts Premium Income Municipal Fund, held Crosstown Center bonds valued at $963,000, according to a recent securities filing. Here are BondView’s yield curves of yesterdays Industrial Development Bonds trades from Massachusetts. They dont look bad now, but a good idea to steer clear of this category if they don’t have the full faith and credit of the municipality behind them.

AMBAC Bites The Dust…?

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

About 10 years ago my muni bond broker said the “day insurers of muni bonds cant pay off a defaulted bond you will have bigger problems on your hands” , implying such an event would never happen. Well he was right about big problems.  Bond insurers sent shudders through the $2.8 trillion municipal bond market when the threat to their internal triple-A credit ratings surfaced two years ago. But now that one of the biggest, Ambac, has said it may actually tip into bankruptcy, the market  barely cares.  With muni rates at all time lows, and bond pricing all over the place, bond insurance is a laughable notion. Up until  a few years ago any old municipality could buy a AAA bond rating bond insruance  helped  foster an environment where the AAA muni was  a commodity that was  easily traded. Many investors didnt care about the all important underlying rating of a muni and instead bought by issuing insured bonds. The underlying rating was meaningless since buyers thought they just wanted a commodity: The AAA Bond. We know now that  was a mistake, hopefully never to be repeated.

In the heyday of bond insurance, seven firms carried the top credit rating of triple-A, and half of new municipal bonds carried insurance. Now, barely 10% of new muni bonds have insurance. None have retained triple-A ratings and all but one, Assured,  have junk ratings! Their downfall came after the top insurers branched out to guarantee complex mortgage securities. When the housing market tanked, insurers saw their losses grow, their ratings fall and their clients flee.

What does this mean for today?  The muni bond market has largely taken its losses and has withstood the turmoil seen with the weakest of the insurers. Besides Ambac,  MBIA  posted its fifth straight quarterly loss earlier this year and its public finance insurance spinoff  is being challenged by banks, which say such a split is fraudulent.  Here is a list of  today’s insured bonds  trading info from BondView