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Muni Bond Talk

Posts Tagged ‘muni rates’

Muni Default Risk To Get Worse Before It Gets Better

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

Take a look at this WSJ video with Bob DiMella, manager of the Mainstay Tax Free Fund. In summary he says:

1) Muni Bond Demand Increasing – Demand for muni bonds is not going away any time soon because of coming higher taxes and taxable Build America Bonds (BABs) reducing the amount of new tax free bonds being issued. BABs are also finding their way into individuals 401k plans.

2) Muni Default Risk – The problem and solution are political meaning that problems have to be perceived as being so bad that politicians have the necessary cover to make difficult changes to balance the budget, such as reducing platinum pension and health plan benefits. Sounds like a GM bankruptcy coming to a town near you.

We believe Bob DiMella’s comments are largely on track. That said, there are clearly fundamental credit problems in poorly run municipalities (i See Bondview BLOG on this ) on Harrisburg, PA.

Plus there are larger recessionary forces at play that can break the camels back. The worst recession since the 1930s has caused the steepest decline in state tax receipts on record. As a result, even after making very deep cuts, states continue to face large budget gap according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Jan 2010 report “Recession Continues to Batter State Budgets; State Responses Could Slow Recovery “

Muni Bond Defaults Need A louder Alarm

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

Less than a month before the $43.4 million municipal bond default of Boston based Crosstown Center , some unsuspecting retail buyer purchased $100,000 of the now defaulted bonds. Whats troubling is that this purchase was made just 18 days after a rather cryptic material event notice filed thru the EMMA.org continuing disclosure system.

While we are really thrilled to see the positive strides made by the Municipal Securities Rule Making Board and its rather lovely www.emma.org muni bond continuing disclosure system, the impact of material event notices need to be made clearer to the consumer marketplace. Sure “Material Events” can cover a wide range of topics from benign notices to the Crosstown Center disaster. Even with low muni rates, how and when is a consumer suppose to know to watch their muni bonds for falling trees? How about a rating system for these material events on a 1-10 scale from insignificant to “timber….”. After all what good is a warning bell if no one hears it?

Enough with the complaints. How about a solution? History clearly shows that markets have the intelligence to predict bad news thru market price based rating systems. Some of the larger credit rating agencies even offer these products pricing products. But the consumer market doesn’t seem educated to the benefit of these smart market priced based credit ratings. However, Bondview has built in Market Ratings along with bond pricing of muni bonds and muni rates.

Okay then how about the original rating? The defaulted bonds carried a Moody’s rating of Baa3 when issued in 2002. How is it possible to loose $43 million so fast without the rating agencies even noticing?

We can only again recommend our esteemed NY Times colleague Gretchen Morgenson’s 10/10/09 article “When Bond Ratings Get Stale”. Within this well penned piece was detailed the most colorful of quotes during congressional hearings with Scott McCleskey, head of compliance at Moody’s from April 2006 to September 2008. He outlined Moodys failure to effectively monitor the ratings on thousands of muni bonds held by individual and institutional investors. McCleskey said that “in some cases there were bonds which had been outstanding for 10 or 20 years but which had never been looked at since the original rating. In the case of the Crosstown default, its only been 7 years.

In closing, its troubling that somehow Boston is not a “party to the default”and just goes to show that muni bonds really can be a mine field. Even the smart money didn’t see that train wreck coming. Several bond funds including muni bond powerhouse Nuveen, thru its Massachusetts Premium Income Municipal Fund, held Crosstown Center bonds valued at $963,000, according to a recent securities filing. Here are BondView’s yield curves of yesterdays Industrial Development Bonds trades from Massachusetts. They dont look bad now, but a good idea to steer clear of this category if they don’t have the full faith and credit of the municipality behind them.

AMBAC Lives Another Day

Saturday, November 21st, 2009

It seems for now that AMBAC may win its fight to survive, unless a few muni defaults of AMBAC insured bonds bankrupts them. The insurer can at least rely on the long term premiums continued to be paid by all the municipalities it did insure thereby assuring them an annual maintenance stream. All that said, the insurance industry thrives on conservative stability. So why the AMBAC roller-coaster? Well muni rates are low, but their 3rd quarter results showed a capital gain and a higher stock price moved ( over 30% to $1.30). Then last week AMBAC announced the possibility of a bankruptcy filing. And a few days later it reported $856M of surplus easing concerns the bond insurer would fall short of statutory minimums. How all this can happen in two weeks seems anything but predictable. Some Wall Street analysts had speculated the insurer would come up short of $2 million in minimum capital needed under rules set up by its regulator. Then Ambac said it will receive a gain and plus the US government is bailing them out (and alot of other companies) with a $440 million tax refund because of recent legislation that will allow it to carry back 2008 and 2009 losses as far back as 2004.

Here is a list of recently traded insured bonds from BondView.com